While Russian troops continue to attack Ukraine, the economic impact of the conflict is having a major impact on at least three key sectors for the global economy: energy, financial markets and agricultural products.
The current scenario presents new challenges for a global recovery affected by a strong wave of inflation as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
“This is a triple blow for the global economy, with a toxic combination of higher inflation, lower economic growth and greater uncertainty”, Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at the firm eToro, told BBC Mundo.
These are the greatest dangers of the crisis in Ukraine for the world economy.
1. Energy: increase in the price of gas and oil
The conflict in Ukraine brought the price of oil to its highest level in more than seven years hours after the start of the invasion on Thursday and the prices of gas futures contracts skyrocketed 30% in just one day.
Russia is the second largest exporter of oil and the largest exporter of natural gas in the world.
Russia is an exporting power of energy products.
There is a fear that President Vladimir Putin may use natural resources as a weapon of war by reducing the supply of gas to Europe in response to the economic sanctions imposed by the West.
The problem is that , if a country that depends on Russian supplies receives less gas, it has to replace it using other sources available on the international market, which would affect gas supplies for other countries.
“The higher the the conflict, the greater the impact on global energy supply,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at consultancy and investment bank Comerica.
two. Instability in the markets and currencies
Shortly after the start of the Russian attack, the financial markets in Europe and, in particular, in Russia collapsed.
“The invasion is a worse scenario than some investors anticipated,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Trust Advisory Services. “That is why we are seeing a negative reaction.”
The financial markets in Europe were hit by the uncertainty caused by the invasion.
The shares of Russian companies fell sharply after the knew the news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with banks and oil companies among the most affected.
As the conflict unfolds, markets are likely to experience increased volatility, experts say.
This would not only affect large investors, but also people who, for example, save for a pension, whether private or public, whose savings are invested in the stock market.
On the other hand, the price of gold, a safe-haven asset for investors, it reached its highest level since September on Thursday 1990.
In parallel, the dollar has strengthened, while other strong currencies such as the euro and the pound sterling have decreased.
In Latin America there was a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar, with the Chilean peso leading the losses this Thursday.
3. Agricultural products: the price of wheat and corn shoots up
Prices in the wheat and corn markets rose as soon as the Russian attack on Ukraine began.
The price of wheat reached its highest point since 2012, raising concerns that food costs will rise even more globally.
Russia The US and Ukraine, once called “the breadbasket of Europe”, export more than a quarter of the global production of wheat, a fifth of that of corn and 80% of sunflower oil.
Ukraine and Russia account for more than a quarter of world wheat trade and a fifth part of the ve corn chips.
Added to the conflict is the drought in South America, which has cast a shadow over the outlook for soybean supplies.
Experts have warned that the war could affect grain production and even double world wheat prices. On the other hand, Russia is also one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters. Their cost had already risen due to shortages last year, and farmers may have to pay more for them.
Looking to the future: the danger of escalating inflation
Due to the economic effects left by the pandemic, the cost of living around the world had already increased markedly.
In the United States, the inflation reached 7.5% in January, its highest level since February 1982. It is worth bearing in mind that the two drivers that made this indicator rise the most were, precisely, the price of food and energy.
“If energy, food supplies or other basic products, such as metals, are affected by the conflict, prices could rise even more“, warned Lora Jones, business reporter for the BBC.
A team of experts from the Center for Business and Economic Research (CEBR) projected that inflation in major Western economies could reach close to 10%.
Analysis by Faisal Islam, BBC Economics editor.
“Russia will not be punished for its invasion with an embargo on energy exports, as it was Saddam Hussein after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
In fact, according to some measurements, Russian gas exports to Europe have increased. Euro flows from Western Europe to the Kremlin will continue, even as those countries denounce what President Putin is doing with that money.
Russia is clearly taking a beating in the markets. Its sovereign debt is in trouble, its stock market is collapsing, and its currency is at record lows.
As in any war, the economic battle can escalate. Western nations could remove the Russian financial system from the Swift banking communications network, plunging Russia into further isolation.
But President Putin can also limit the supply of energy to the West, raising prices to stratospheric levels and closing factories in Europe.
Although that would have long-term consequences for their entire economic strategy.
This conflict could last a long time and plunge most of Europe into a significant recession. The consequences for diplomacy, politics and life are quite worrying. But the economic impact is very serious.
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