At the beginning of October, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held their series of Annual Meetings, where leaders from all over the world come together to discuss aspects of international relevance in economic matters. The leading topics of this event: inflationary pressures and debt levels. To be expected. However, another of the issues highlighted in this forum was the growth of poverty and its repercussions on food security.
Food insecurity is an evil that affects many. The World Food Program estimates that around 828 million people go to bed hungry every night. Of these, those experiencing extreme hunger have more than doubled since 2019, going from 98 million to 345 million people in 2022. Future prospects, although more encouraging, are not enough to achieve the Zero Hunger goal stipulated in the Sustainable Development Goals 2030. Projections of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), forecast that 345 million people, is say 8% of the world’s population will suffer from hunger by the end of the decade.
However, food insecurity refers not only to lack in terms of quantity, but also of quality. In other words, beyond the lack of physical or economic access to food, the nutritional value that these provide must also be evaluated and whether they are sufficient to satisfy the dietary requirements of a human being. In this aspect the challenges are important. According to the FAO, in 2020 about 3 billion people could not afford a healthy diet, most of them concentrated in Africa and Asia. In Sub-Saharan Africa alone, more than 90% of people cannot access a healthy diet.
The factors that affect this food crisis are diverse and complex. In the first place, inflationary pressures can be mentioned. The interruption of supply chains and the consequent cessation of world trade as a result of the COVID-pandemic 19, led to imbalances in supply levels, impacting the prices of raw materials. In May of 2022 there was a historic rise in the price of agricultural commodities, reaching values of 80% older than two years before. Despite slight reductions in price evidenced during the last quarter, the upward trend is expected to continue. Indeed, the United States Department of Agriculture indicated in its September projection that all food prices are expected to increase between 9% and % in the rest of the year.
In second place, the poverty factor. The World Bank estimates that, for this year, there will be between 75 and 95 millions more people living in extreme poverty than pre-COVID. In other words, 676 million people will live on less than US$2.15 per day, hindering their access to food and proper nutrition. To make matters worse, after the pandemic, the world’s economies have seen their fiscal space limited, which reduces their possibility of implementing social policies to combat hunger. Therefore, if before guaranteeing food was a challenge, today it is a task of force majeure.
Thirdly, armed conflicts, particularly the Russo-Ukrainian war. A conflict that was argued would end in weeks, is now beginning its ninth month. Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, contributing about 20% of this item to world level. While Ukraine is considered the breadbasket of Europe, with more than 70% of its land devoted to agriculture. The difficulty in entering production inputs and accessing arable areas immersed in wars, as well as the lack of labor as a result of forced displacement, put the world at risk of losing a significant portion of its agricultural supply. And not to mention the refugee crisis that derives from this conflict, which adds to the global refugee crisis and further increases food insecurity.
Finally, the weather factor. The effects of climate change are becoming more evident every day. Since the last century the global temperature has risen by 1.1° C (1.98° F). In fact, 2019 has been one of the hottest years on record. This warming has brought with it rises in sea level, and altered weather patterns resulting in increased droughts and floods. The recent heat wave that hit north-west India, damaging the year’s harvests, and the drought in Somalia – the worst in 40 years- are just two examples that I allow myself to cite, and that lead the world to the risk of famine.
Countries must be prepared to take measures to mitigate this imminent crisis. Improving agricultural infrastructure is key. This is what the United States, Japan and China have been doing, promoting the use of vertical farms. Countries can also promote food self-sufficiency strategies such as Singapore, which has been geared towards diversifying its food basket and promoting local crops. Consumers, likewise, must contribute their grain of sand. In the United States, between 30% and 40% of the food supply. Reducing food waste and taking advantage of spaces in the home to grow smaller-scale items are just some of the measures that can be adopted. It is time to be more aware when producing, buying and consuming food.
Katherine Javier is an economist specialized in economic development and analysis and evaluation of public policies. She is a graduate of the Instituto Tecnológico de Santo Domingo, The University of Manchester and Columbia University. For interesting discussions, follow her on Twitter @KatherineJavier