CoreLogic released its Home Price Index (HPI) for 2023, finding that Bellingham, WA is at very high risk (greater than 70% chance) of a decline in housing prices. home in the next 12 months.
CoreLogic HPI™ provides an early indication of home price trends. The indices are completely revised with each release and employ techniques to pinpoint turning points earlier.
The report has national, state, and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro coverage and includes home price indices (including distressed sales); home price forecasts and market condition indicators, and the data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat sales transactions to analyze home price trends.
After its analysis, CoreLogic found that the markets most at risk of price declines in 2023 are:
1. Bellingham, WA: with a 50% to 75% chance
2. Crestview – Fort Walton Beach – Destin, FL: 50%-75%
3. Salem, OR: 50%-75%
4. Merced, CA: 50%-75%
5. Urban, Honolulu, HI: 50%-75%
To see more details of the report, go here.
The report notes that year-over-year home price growth ended its 21-month streak of double-digit momentum in November, posting a gain of 8.6%, the lowest rate of appreciation in exactly two years.
Although 16 states bucked the national trend and posted double-digit annual increases, appreciation is slowing in many popular housing markets across the country. The southeastern states still led the country’s price growth in November, but also saw some of the steepest cooling. Similarly, the relatively more expensive western areas have also posted substantial combined declines in recent months since the spring peak.
CoreLogic notes that nationally, the recent price slowdown pushed November home values 2.5% below the spring 2022 high. And it notes that by 2023, home values are likely to move even more so from that high point, as he expects price growth to start posting negative year-over-year readings in the second quarter.
“Although home price growth has slowed rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, the strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that the full appreciation in 2022 was only slightly less than in 2021. However, 2023 will present its own challenges as consumers continue to be wary of both the housing market and the broader economic outlook,” said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist.
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