Ukraine, Mali, Sudan, Syria, the Central African Republic, Libya… the tentacles of the Wagner Group extend far beyond Russia’s borders, where the consequences of its uprising against the Kremlin are difficult to predict.
The Wagner Group had, until now, been very useful to Moscow’s interests.
The mercenary company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has acted as a sort of Russian shadow army, doing much of the dirty work wherever the Kremlin had interests, but did not want to send its own soldiers to avoid potential legal or diplomatic repercussions.
In return, Wagner, a network of companies that goes beyond the private army, has obtained political influence and a gateway to exploit the rich natural resources of many of these countries, which allows it to finance itself.
However, after the frustrated uprising, his future is up in the air.
In Ukraine, where it has played a prominent role since the seizure of Crimea in 2014 until the capture of Bakhmut last month, Moscow has opened the doors for thousands of Wagner mercenaries fighting on the front lines to join the ranks of the regular army, something that should materialize before July 1.
But what could happen to Wagner’s troops further from Russia?
“In many of those countries, the Wagner Group works semi-autonomously and is only there for the money. And the Russian army has neither the intention nor the resources to get involved in these conflicts or try to stop Wagner there ”, analyzes for BBC Mundo Professor Rasmus Nilsson, from the School of Slavic and Eastern European Studies at University College London. (UCL).
In his opinion, his services will continue to be in demand in the countries where he already operates, and where it is possible that “Wagner ends up dividing into different groups, depending on who pays them.”
Where are they present
The civil war in Syria was one of the first forays of the Wagner Group outside of Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin came to the aid of Bashar al Assad in 2015, after the Syrian army was overwhelmed by fighting against the opposition-turned-insurgency-and against the jihadist forces of the Islamic State. A month later, the soldiers of the Russian army were joined by Prigozhin’s mercenaries, who eventually numbered more than 5,000 men.
Syria is also one of the few places where Western troops have clashed with Wagner’s mercenaries.
In 2018, Al Assad’s army, supported by Russian mercenaries, attacked a US military post from which they were fighting Islamic State forces. The US responded with an offensive that is believed to have killed between 200 and 300 fighters, including many Wagner members.
The Syrian conflict is currently frozen, and many of the mercenaries are believed to have left the region to join the fighting in Ukraine, although Wagner-linked companies have won lucrative contracts in areas once controlled by Islamic State.
Less documented is its possible presence in Venezuela.
In 2019, the Reuters agency assured that Wagner mercenaries flew to Caracas to reinforce the security of President Nicolás Maduro in the face of anti-government demonstrations planned at the beginning of that year.
The Wagner Group has also been accused of being linked to illegal mining in Venezuela, an issue that even reached the British parliament in 2022. When asked by a legislator, the government of the Kingdom assured that it was closely following the information about the presence of Russian mercenaries in the Latin American country and on the activities of “private Russian military companies” in the Arco Minero region, where illegal gold mining is carried out.
However, in the face of Wagner’s rebellion last Saturday, the Maduro government was quick to condemn the “terrorist threat” of the mercenary group and its “absolute support” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Great presence in Africa
The group of mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has a significant presence in Africa, where they offer security services, political consulting or disinformation campaigns.
From Libya in the north to South Africa in the south, Wagner’s activities have been increasing in recent years, feeding on political instability and even, on some occasions, fomenting it themselves, according to experts in the region.
In Libya, Wagner’s mercenaries first made their public appearance in 2019, where they supported rebel General Khalifa Haftar in his assault on the UN-backed government in Tripoli. The group is believed, however, to have been in the country since 2014, when Libya split de facto in two, with opposing governments in the east and west of the country.
Prigozhin once had some 2,000 troops in Libya, although it is unknown how many soldiers are still there.
In Sudan, also the scene of fierce fighting between two rival generals, Wagner has about 500 men, according to local media such as The Sudan Tribune. Russian mercenaries entered at the hands of then-president Omar al Bashir, who signed a series of agreements with Moscow in 2017.
Among them was the construction of a naval base in Port Sudan, in the Red Sea, as well as gold mining concessions with the company M Invest, which, according to the US, is a front company of the Wagner Group.
Since then, although Sudan has not recognized the presence of the mercenaries in the country, various images published on Telegram channels linked to the group – which could not be verified by the BBC – have shown Wagner troops training Sudanese soldiers or helping security forces to break up demonstrations.
In Mali, the troops of the Wagner Group have been operating for more than a year and, although the country’s authorities have not officially confirmed this, the Malian Foreign Minister, Abdulaye Diop, has made it clear that they do not need to justify themselves: “Russia it is here at the request of Mali and responds effectively to our strategic needs,” he said last year.
France, the former colonial power, had until very recently been Mali’s strategic partner, including deploying thousands of French soldiers to help Malian troops fight the Islamist insurgency that had taken control of the north. from the country.
But this cooperation did not bear fruit, animosity towards France grew in the country and Paris was forced to withdraw its troops in 2022, which have been replaced by Wagner mercenaries.
This scenario has been repeated in Burkina Faso, where the government denies that Prigozhin’s men are operating in the country. According to Ouagadougou, cooperation with Moscow is limited to the training of soldiers in the handling of weapons purchased from Russia.
However, US intelligence assumed earlier this year that Prigozhin’s group was in negotiations with the Burkinabé government to deploy its troops and that they had carried out information operations.
Wagner’s soldiers could also be spreading to Chad, according to various African, European and American sources. Chad occupies a strategic position in the center of the Sahel, with relatively open borders with the Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan, where its mercenaries are active.
Wagner reportedly provided material and operational support to local rebels who are seeking to destabilize and possibly overthrow the interim government led by Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno.
They are also very present in the Central African Republic, where France withdrew its troops in 2017 after years of intervention that failed to help Bangui make significant progress in terms of stability, security and economic development.
The Wagner Group has since taken its place, where it has helped to consolidate the government of Faustin-Archange Touadéra and to stop the advance of the rebel groups that began a civil war in 2013.
Prigozhin’s group “is the most important representative of Russia in the Central African Republic, provides security to the government, facilitates Russian political and diplomatic influence, and has gained access to lucrative mineral resources,” Paul Stronski, senior researcher at the Carnegie Fund, explains to BBC Mundo. for International Peace.
In Eritrea, Wagner is reportedly in talks with the government to provide training and equipment, and in Zimbabwe to offer support in information operations, according to US intelligence material seen by the Washington Post.
Prigozhin’s fate
The large number of services offered by the Wagner Group in these countries will continue to be in demand.
Its activity has often been accompanied by serious denunciations of human rights, and a recent United Nations report warned of possible war crimes committed by its mercenaries in Mali. But, as Paul Stronski points out, this hasn’t been a big problem for many of the countries that have hired Wagner.
Following the riot, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered an agreement between Progozhin and the Kremlin to allow Wagner’s leader to go into exile in Belarus.
“Lukashenko is going to have a vested interest in keeping him safe to save that token with the Russians. But, on the other hand, Moscow is not going to want to depend on Belarus, so that is a clear reason to end Prigozhin”, analyzes Rasmus Nilsson.
The big question now, says the UCL professor, is what Yevgeny Prigozhin is going to do: “Is he going to keep quiet in Belarus or, as some have suggested, go to Africa to become a warlord there? ?”.
According to this analyst, the possibility that the mercenary leader heads south makes sense, since “he could surround himself with a faithful group and where he will continue to have many people interested in working with him.”
As for his soldiers, Nilsson believes that some of them deployed in Ukraine and Russia will end up joining the Russian army, but many will not trust their intentions or their capabilities.
Salaries, much lower than those of Wagner, can also work against him.
“There will be those who decide to go to one of the Wagner branches in Africa, for example, or to another group. There are many organizations in the world that are looking for mercenaries”, concludes the UCL professor.
Keep reading:
· Russian general knew about the uprising of the leader of the Wagner Group, according to The New York Times
NATO considers that the Wagner rebellion confirms the division of the Russian armed forces
Russia executed 77 civilians detained in Ukraine: UN
See original article on BBC