US recession: odds down, but experts still see no signs of economic strength

Although the chances of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months have decreased, its levels remain high, so experts point out that there are still no signs of strength in the country.

And it is that according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, the probabilities of the United States economy entering a recession in the next 12 months have decreased, compared to the results of the previous survey carried out in April, which registered a tie between those who expected a recession and those who did not.

Now, most business economists estimate that the chances that the United States will enter a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less.

It was almost 71% of the specialists who participated in the survey, who highlighted that the chances of the US economy falling into recession is 50% or less according to the results published this Monday by the National Association for Business Economics.

Although this change in estimates may be due to progress in the labor market and the fall in consumer prices.

The National Association for Business Economics survey was conducted between June 30 and July 12.

Mexico also reduces chances of recession in the United States

Also in Mexico, experts reduce the probability of a recession in Mexico, although they warn that signs of economic strength are not yet in sight.

Banco Base estimates in this regard is a 78.8% probability of a recession in July 2024, that is, 7.5 percentage points less in relation to the details of last June.

Although this could give the economy a breather, experts point out that despite these estimates, the US economy is not showing signs of strength, so it is important to remain careful with spending.

The Banco Base economists indicate that these estimates are the result of the decrease in the inversion of the yield curve.

Inflation in June stood at 3%, according to a recent report from the Department of Labor in the United States.

However, specialists are also waiting for the announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will make about a possible increase in interest rates.

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