By Jorge Vazquez
Nov 29, 2023, 09:34 AM EST
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index showed improved performance, rising to 102.0 in November, up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October.
The Current Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell slightly to 138.2, from 138.6.
While the expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose to 77.8 in November, up from its downwardly revised reading of 72.7 in October.
The Conference Board, the economic think tank that provides information on what’s to come, notes that despite this month’s improvement, the Expectations Index remains below 80 for the third consecutive month, a level that historically indicates a recession within the next year.
“While consumer fears about an impending recession eased slightly (to the lowest levels seen this year), about two-thirds of consumers surveyed in November still perceive that a recession is ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’ to occur.” recession in the next 12 months. This is consistent with the short and shallow recession that we anticipate in the first half of 2024,” the report states.
Specialists point out that consumer confidence increased in November, after three consecutive months of decline: “This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Current Situation Index remained practically unchanged.
Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noted that: “November’s increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among households 55 and older; On the contrary, confidence among households aged 35 to 54 decreased slightly. Overall improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. However, written responses revealed that consumers remain concerned about rising prices in general, followed by wars/conflicts and higher interest rates.”
Peterson added: “Assessments of the current situation declined in November, driven by less optimistic views on the current availability of employment, which outweighed slightly improved views on the state of business conditions.”
Consumer expectations for the next six months recovered in November, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions, job availability and income, notes The Conference Board.
Consumers’ perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months fell in November to the lowest levels seen this year, although two-thirds still expect a slowdown.
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