how-the-us-presidential-election-could-be-turned-upside-down-if-trump-is-convictedHow the US presidential election could be turned upside down if Trump is convicted
Avatar of Raúl Castillo

By Raul Castillo

04 Feb 2024, 15:12 PM EST

If the US presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would defeat Joe Biden by at least five points, according to a recent NBC News poll. However, everything could take a surprising turn if the former Republican president is convicted in one of the serious trials he faces.

In this way, with a condemnation of Trump, a hypothetical confrontation between him and Biden would go from an advantage for him of 47% to 42% currently, to a victory for Biden 45% to 43%, according to the media’s survey.

Thus, the intention to vote for Biden would improve among all voters if Trump is convicted.

Among Latinos, for example, the former president currently beats Biden in voting intention by just one point of difference, 42% to 41%. But with a hypothetical condemnation of Trump, then a good part would vote for Biden, who would achieve 45% of the votes of Latinos registered to vote, compared to 35% for the New York magnate.

And independents go from a 19-point lead for Trump in the first vote to a smaller 8-point lead for Trump in the second.

However, Republican pollster Bill McInturff warns that the small portion of voters who change on these two ballots (55 in total out of 1,000 interviews) have overwhelmingly negative opinions about Biden, and also prefer a Congress controlled by the Republicans by more than 60 points. republicans.

As a result, McInturff said according to NBC News, he has doubts that these voters will really stick with Biden even if Trump is convicted of a felony.

Trump surpasses Biden in almost everything

Regarding negative views of Biden, the NBC News poll found that the president’s overall approval rating fell to the lowest point of his presidency, with 37% of registered voters approving and 60% disapproving. This is three negative points compared to the same survey last month.

Among Latino voters, only 35% approve of Biden’s performance.

In general, the assessment of Trump’s performance exceeds that of Biden in almost all areas: in managing the economy, the former president surpasses the current president by 22 points. In terms of effectiveness and competence, he surpasses it by 16 percentage points.

Also in the survey, Trump has an advantage in securing the border and controlling immigration (35 points over Biden), in having the physical and mental health necessary to be president (+23), in dealing with crime and violence (+21 ), in being competent and effective (+16) and in improving the position of the United States in the world (+11).

Biden only outperforms the Republican on addressing abortion (+12) and protecting immigrant rights (+17).

The NBC News poll was conducted Jan. 26-30 among 1,000 registered voters (867 contacted by cellphone) and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Keep reading:

  • Donald Trump celebrated his victory over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire: “What a great victory!”
  • Biden acknowledged that Donald Trump “has virtually secured” the Republican nomination
  • Why did Biden win the New Hampshire Democratic primary even though he wasn’t on the ballot?

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