New York – Three months before the primaries of the majority parties in Puerto Rico, a survey by the NotiCel media released this week suggests that, in the case of the New Progressive Party (PNP), Governor Pedro Pierluisi would defeat his opponent for the position, Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González.
The survey, commissioned by the Puerto Rican media to Atlas Intelligence, based in Brazil, showed that Pierluisi maintains an 8.5% advantage over his rival heading into the June 2 primaries.
Specifically, Pierluisi obtained 53.1% support, and González 44.6%.
Compared to the previous survey in October 2023, support for Pierluisi grew by half a percent. In the consultation at the end of last year, the difference between the current governor and the commissioner was 50.4% versus 42.4%, equivalent to 8%.
A notable fact from this investigation is that, compared to data from four months ago, the percentage of participants who said they did not know who to vote for fell from 7.3% to 2.4%.
Another relevant aspect of the data on the race for the gubernatorial candidacy is that the majority of those who support González are younger voters.
The results of the Atlas survey showed that the pre-candidate leads among voters aged 18 to 44 (65.1%); while Pierluisi obtained greater support from voters between the ages of 45 to 60 years (67%) and those between 60 to 100 years old (55.6%).
The data also suggests that support for the governor is greater from sectors that usually participate in the PNP primaries and that feel more identified with the party.
Judging by the findings of the survey reviewed by NotiCel, Pierluisi is the favorite among voters who voted in the PNP primaries in 2020.
Under that category, Pierluisi obtained 63.2% versus 33.4% for González. González was in a better position among voters, 62.6%, who indicated that they will vote in this year’s PNP primary, but also voted in the 2020 primary.
Jesús Manuel Ortiz fronts in projection of primaries for the governorship in the PPD
In the case of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), the survey indicates that the current president of the party Jesús Manuel Ortiz would win the candidacy towards the general elections on November 5 with 73.1% support. Senator Juan Zaragoza obtained 26.9%.
Regarding the battle for the resident police station in Washington, 58.2% of those surveyed supported the aspiration of William Villafañe (whom Pierluisi supports) versus 26.8% favored Elmer Román, who has the favor of González. 15% said they were not sure who they would vote for in the primaries.
In comparison with Pablo José Hernández Rivera, the only PPD candidate for that position heading into the general election, he leads Román by 4.2% and Villafañe by 2.2%. However, in this area the indecision of the voters is evident, with figures of 16.5% and 14.2%, respectively.
The status formula that Puerto Ricans prefer
The survey conducted by Atlas also explored the preference of Puerto Ricans regarding status formulas.
The investigation was based on the options contemplated in the decolonization projects in Congress such as the Puerto Rico Status Act, approved by Democrats in the House of Representatives in December 2022, for a plebiscite between non-territorial options on the island.
Under the question of the status formula they preferred, 47.2% of respondents answered statehood; 23.3%, free association; and 11.4%, independence. 18.1% said they were undecided about their preferred alternative.
In the case of statehood, the greatest support came from voters between 18 and 60 years old, with 49.5% and 49.3%, respectively. A fact that draws attention regarding the independence option is that it obtained more support among voters between the ages of 18 and 44 with 17.2%.
Atlas Surveyor Scope
Andrei Román is the CEO of the survey company Atlas. He has a bachelor’s degree in economics, as well as a master’s degree and doctorate in Government from Harvard University. His industry experience includes conducting political and economic surveys in more than 25 countries.
For the NotiCel survey, participants were organically invited by Atlas through routine web browsing in geolocated territories on any device. The methodology allows us to reach users in places that this type of company does not traditionally identify.
Atlas Intel samples are post-stratified and based on an interactive algorithm with a minimal set of variables including gender, age range, educational level, income level, region, and past voting behavior. The purpose of the above is to ensure representativeness at the national level.
The Atlas method has the highest ranking among companies that do this type of evaluation in Puerto Rico.
In the case of the PNP, apart from the races for the governorship and the resident police station, there will be primaries in 38 municipalities, as well as in all the senatorial districts except Carolina, the Administration reported.
Regarding candidates for accumulation to the Senate, there will be eight primary contests; and seven in the case of candidacies by accumulation to the Chamber, reported Vanessa Santo Domingo, electoral commissioner of the PNP.
The PPD, for its part, will hold 38 primaries, where 101 candidates will compete.
The candidates in dispute include seven to the Senate by accumulation; six to representative by accumulation; and 12 to the Senate for the districts of Arecibo, Mayagüez, Guayama and Humacao, recently indicated the party’s electoral commissioner, Karla Angleró González.
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