By Marlyn Montilla
03 Jul 2024, 16:32 PM EDT
The chances of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024 have risen more than fourfold, according to traders at Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform that has seen huge growth in an election year.
Yes shares in a contract asking whether Harris will be approved were trading at 31 cents in afternoon New York time, indicating the market sees a 31 percent chance of that, up from 7 percent the day before. The stock has since given up some gains and was recently trading at 23 cents.
Each share pays one dollar (in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zero if it doesn’t.
Officially, President Joe Biden remains the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee, but many of his supporters have now called on him to step aside, with some wanting the vice president to take over after the president’s weak performance in last Thursday’s debate with Republican and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.
“We need to do everything we can to support her, whether she’s second or first on the ticket,” said Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C.
In an op-ed in Newsweek written by former congressman Tim Ryan, the first presidential candidate to endorse Biden in 2020, he was more blunt: “Kamala Harris should be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024.” An analysis by The Wall Street Journal called the vice president “Biden’s most likely replacement.”
The trend was similar on Tuesday at Predictlt, a more traditional prediction market platform where bets are paid out in dollars rather than cryptocurrency.
Harris shares that answered “Yes” more than doubled to 35 cents. Predictlt’s volume on the question of who will win the Democratic nomination totals $31 million, dwarfed by Polymarket’s $75 million.
Under an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket is prohibited from doing business in the United States, while Predictlt is allowed to operate in the country under a regulatory exemption.
Tuesday was Polymarket’s fifth-biggest day of volume in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in transactions, according to data from Dune Analytics. June was the first month in which the company recorded volume of more than $100 million.
His biggest contract, with $211 million in bets, is on who will win the US presidency in November. Trump remains the favorite, with a 66% chance of winning the election.
Keep reading:
- Will Michelle Obama replace Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate? That’s what Ted Cruz predicts
- The Democratic maze: the keys to the complex process to replace Biden
- Why Kamala Harris would not be the best choice to replace Joe Biden as a candidate?