At this moment, in any Hispanic-majority neighborhood in New York, beyond the emotions that the Copa America arouses, there is a “ball” that is still in the “field” and that is being “kicked” by rumors and very polarized opinions: Does the current leader of the White House have the minimum conditions of mental health to continue in office? Are we on the verge of a decision by the Democratic Party that will remove him from the race for reelection?
Although this week, the top leaders of the Democratic Party reiterated that President Joe Biden will continue to be their candidate, dozens of Hispanic New York voters consulted by El Diario overwhelmingly agree that the president should step aside and allow another, more vital figure to try to “beat” Donald Trump, who was strengthened in last week’s debate organized by CNN.
These are the same conclusions of all the polls released in the last few hours.
On a summer afternoon in Washington Heights, between 181 and 182 St. Nicholas Avenue, there were those who will vote for the Democratic Party in the November presidential elections, “no matter what,” those who are still thinking about who they will support with their vote, those who would never vote for Donald Trump and those who, on the contrary, will bet everything on his return to the White House.
Although everyone has an unequivocal consensus: the current president looks “weak” given the historic moment the country is facing.
There is also another coincidence in the comments. Some believe that the Democratic leadership in New York is “very confident” and is doing nothing to counteract a possible rise of Trump in local polls among Latino voters.
The truth is that, until now, no formal or academic opinion poll has specified the specific Hispanic voting intention in this segment of the Big Apple’s population.
In the country in 2016, only 28% of Latinos voted for Trump. In 2020, it was 38%. Based on a survey published in May by The New York Times, the Republican would obtain 46% of the support of Spanish speakers, 6% more than Biden, according to an opinion poll from early March.
“They failed us here”
“It is not possible that the man who runs the first nation in the world cannot even express an idea clearly. That is disrespectful. I am not judging, nor saying that he is bad or good. I am still not sure who I am going to vote for. But this really makes me think,” said Dominican Maria Tavares.
Next to Maria, another islander, health worker Maria Martinez, says that even before the televised confrontation, she had her doubts about the convenience of Biden seeking reelection. Now she interprets that she saw on the screens, “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”
“We have to take into account that the Democrats have already failed us a lot here in New York. And that will affect this election. They rolled out a red carpet and are paying for everything for thousands of newcomers, while they have not been able to solve the problems of the working class, who struggle and struggle. We have to deal with the unusual costs of rent and crime. I am going to vote, but I am also thinking about how,” shared Maria.
“I prefer to abstain”
In early June in New York City, if at least six polls on voting intentions between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump were compared, in general, these snapshots showed advantages for the current president, against the New York magnate.
The national average of FiveThirtyEight polls gave the current president 40.8% of voting intentions versus 40.7% for his Republican rival. In other words, a technical tie that did not allow for any real predictions.
Although political experts agree that the debate’s effect is primarily on the large mass of undecided voters, some voters, such as 28-year-old Colombian José Miguel Ruiz, already say that if the Democratic Party does not make a change, they will enter a terrain where they will have to consider whether to abstain. Because they do not plan to vote for former President Trump under any circumstances.
“I voted for Biden in the last election. I understood that it was a transition away from a racist threat, which has said that all Hispanics are criminals. But it seems to me to be extremely irresponsible that he intends to continue, when he clearly has cognitive problems,” she added.
“Whoever it”
For his part, Venezuelan Gregorio Herrera says that under any scenario, he will vote for the Democratic Party. From his perspective, the country’s democracy is at stake, since former President Trump has shown signs of “totalitarian behavior, wanting to manipulate other powers and institutions.”
“Whatever it is, President Biden has been a man who respects the other powers. The debate here must be about who guarantees the stability of the democratic system. On the other hand, I know that many Hispanics are disappointed with the migration crisis, but clear proposals have been made to control the border and the Republicans have blocked it to sabotage this management. Finally, a review of the concept of a sanctuary city is required, because behind this flow of people to New York, there are interests of organizations that profit from this situation,” he said.
Democrats very confident in NY
According to 50-year-old Puerto Rican teacher Camel Rodriguez, in the case of New York City, the ruling party is very confident, because historically Hispanic voters “turn out in droves to vote blue like sheep.” Although he warns that “they could get a scare.”
In recent elections, Democrats have lost districts that had not been held by a Republican for decades. Most recently, a City Council seat in the Bronx’s 13th District.
During the last election for governor of New York, the red party had its best performance in 28 years, in terms of the number of votes.
“You have to realize that here in New York City, no one is campaigning in Hispanic neighborhoods for Biden. Because his victory is considered assured. The truth is that there is growing discontent among Latino voters on many issues. The Bronx and Upper Manhattan, if there are no rectifications, could be a surprise,” a source from the Democratic Committee who preferred not to reveal his identity told El Diario.
A minority that is larger
Upper Manhattan and the Bronx have one of the largest proportions of Hispanic voters in New York.
As the Naleo Educational Fund has pointed out, in view of the presidential elections, it is projected that one million Latinos in New York will vote this November, which translates into an increase of 12.4% since 2020 and 13.1% since 2016.
The Latino share of all New York voters in 2024 is expected to be 11.7%. More than 15% of New York’s voting-age citizens are of Latin American origin, primarily from the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Colombia. In addition, the largest portion of New York voters are Puerto Ricans living in the continental United States.
Dominican retiree Silvio Rodriguez, 78, says he will definitely vote for the Democratic Party, but out of a “personal conviction” of what he considers a “lesser evil.” Silvio’s reasoning is based on the idea that for the first time since he has been “following politics closely,” he does not see any real options for change for the country.
“It is a shame that those who run this city, including the elected Hispanic leadership, believe that we vote only out of fear of having our benefits and vouchers taken away. I think they are forgetting that there is a generation of educated young voters.”
Silvio also says that perhaps in no other city in the country has he felt the weight of the immigration crisis, which unfortunately the Republicans have taken great advantage of. Especially because never before have New Yorkers been struggling so much to survive and eat.
“I don’t know if the border is more open or closed than before. As far as I know, thousands of people have passed through there all their lives. But what has never been seen before is that they are received in five-star hotels, with all meals, when you have veterans sleeping on the streets. As far as I know, New York has been a sanctuary city for decades. So the question is: Who created the crisis?” he concluded.
“We expect a strong man”
Another person interviewed, Dominican Juan Gil, who has lived in Upper Manhattan for 40 years, firmly believes that the country needs a “strong man” who is at least in his “rights”: I didn’t need to watch the debate to have an opinion. I think that the best thing at this moment is someone who comes to restore order on the border and in cities dominated by crime. And that person is Donald Trump.
On the same sidewalk, there is also 69-year-old Francisco Duran, from the island, who believes in his personal view that the “return of Trump” will be inevitable. He does not doubt that the majority of Hispanics eligible to vote “are disappointed with the Democratic management of the country, the state and the city.”
“It wasn’t his age that brought Biden down, but the extreme leftist group that took power away from the police. And now we are in the hands of the underworld. And they put the newcomers above retired voters, who are being evicted from their homes because they can’t pay. Or who are between eating and paying for medicine. While you see them rewarding everyone who crosses the border by giving them three meals, a room and a hotel. That buried the Democrats,” he concluded.
The fact:
- 31% of those polled this week by CNN say they could change their minds between now and Election Day. And three-quarters think Democrats would be better off if they changed their candidate.