Living in New York City, with all the vertigo that it entails, not knowing if one will make ends meet, has been a constant for the working class for decades.
It is also a long-standing trend, the difficulty of obtaining affordable housing.
Everything is more complicated for migrants who have their own challenges, but after the pandemic, all these difficulties to survive have worsened, expelling at a much faster rate, young professional families with small children and those who have few roots.
Beyond the anecdotes that can be collected in every corner of the Big Apple, a study published by the Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) of New York reveals that between 2020 and 2023 the population of the entire State fell by 533,200 people, which means 2.7%. A figure described as the most “pronounced” in the entire country.
It was found that 36% of households leaving New York State are moving in search of more affordable housing, a percentage that is double the trend before the public health crisis caused by the pandemic.
Notably, Hispanic New Yorkers are increasingly likely to leave, with moving rates 38% higher than those of white New Yorkers, in the years since the pandemic.
Households with young children are more than 40 percent more likely to leave the state and twice as likely to move out of New York City than households without young children, FPI notes.
The report, Who is Leaving New York?, updated this June, states that this mobilization is a product of the high costs of caring for young children, not only because of the challenges of finding housing, but also the costs of daycare or babysitting.
All concentrated in NYC
90% of those who have recently moved to other locations in the country, seeking a better quality of life, which mainly involves more decent living spaces, have been people who were residing in the five counties of the Big Apple.
Florida and New Jersey are the most common “change of course” destinations in all analyses.
“A disproportionate number of people leaving New York are black or Hispanic. The pandemic undoubtedly amplified the movement of both groups, with a historically notable uptick,” said the analysis, which comes from surveys, interviews and census data.
“You can’t raise a family”
The words of Benita Gonzalez, a Dominican woman who takes care of her grandson, are almost a slogan in the predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods of Upper Manhattan: “New York is no longer a place to raise your family. We are going backwards, like the guinea pig. Anyone who wants to raise their children, away from gunfire and so many problems to survive, has to leave here.”
The islander, who has been in the Big Apple for 14 years, feels that if people could survive before the pandemic, now it seems impossible.
“Look at the price of rent, it has skyrocketed. If families don’t have a grandmother or a relative to look after their children, it would be impossible to pay for a nursery,” he said.
It is clearly described that in the city, the costs associated exclusively with small children and the need for more space are important drivers of this type of internal migration, with a greater concentration in families with children under six years of age.
More professionals pack their bags
Although the desire to leave the ‘city of skyscrapers’, one of the world’s hubs of professional opportunities in all areas, might seem like an issue for the poorest, in reality the analysis of this research center shows that the segment of the professional middle class that adapts to remote work is also “packing its bags.”
Following the monumental crisis caused by Covid-19, households that can relocate more easily or have weaker ties to New York are increasingly leaving.
It is noted that those born in other states are two and a half times more likely to move.
Young adult professionals are twice as likely to look for a less expensive city than the rest of the population.
For example, 45-year-old Colombian Jesús Márquez, who worked in Lower Manhattan at a financial firm, understood that by paying rent, around $4,500 for a one-bedroom apartment, he could rent a house with a pool in Florida.
Many of his peers, who wanted to have children, did the same.
“My company switched to remote work with the entire team. I have to schedule 12 meetings a year. One every month and that’s it. The offices closed. After two and a half years of this experience, I miss very few things. Even more so when I read the news about the chaos, violence and all the crises in New York, where I lived for 20 years,” he said.
The key: income and age
In 2022, the median income of college degree holders who left the Big Apple was about $111,000, while the median household income of college degree holders who stayed in New York was $125,000.
FPI’s extensive research finds that “age is more strongly associated with internal migration than any other demographic characteristic, as people tend to move between states more frequently when they are young adults.”
As individuals’ professional and family lives become more stable, and they become older, their likelihood of making interstate moves begins to decrease.
The most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which estimates the state’s population as of July 1, 2023, suggests that while international immigration appears to have returned to pre-Covid-19 averages, birth rates remain low, holding back a traditional source of population growth.
Although the city’s rate of population loss slowed in 2023, it remains “very high” relative to its neighbors in New Jersey and Connecticut, when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, a recent analysis by SmartAsset found that New York City is where one needs the most money to live “comfortably” as an individual: $66.62 per hour or an annual salary of $138,570.
New York is also one of six cities in the United States where a family must earn more than $300,000 to “comfortably” raise two children.
From the neighborhood
Faced with all this accumulation of data, Anthony Fernandez, creator and host of the digital platform ‘From The Neighborhood’, dedicated to sharing stories at the heart of communities, admits that New York is a place of constant change. Although he perceives that he has never had so many people, who were once neighbors, living outside the city.
“New York is expensive and it is well known that it has a high cost of living, especially in housing. Its housing stock is limited and most of it is over 100 years old. The cost of building and renovating here is colossal and complicated. The 2019 rent reform, combined with pandemic moratoriums, destroyed property values,” summarized the man who is also a real estate consultant.
Fernandez says that new regulations and restrictions on rent increases related to improvements in the stabilized housing stock have left many apartments empty. The lack of adequate inventory has increased demand and driven up rent prices.
In addition, the deteriorating value of larger buildings began to push higher-net-worth investors to compete with smaller residential buyers. This reduced inventory and drove up prices.
For the Dominican-born content creator, there are other variables that are “dispatching” thousands of residents: the reform of bail laws associated with the perception that criminals can act more freely.
“I see the concerns and complaints of workers and the aspirations of professionals. Listening to them all the time, I have found myself agreeing with their reasons for leaving. The incentives of other cities can make you want a new taste of life,” Fernandez said.
The dream and nightmare of newcomers
In this dynamic of population loss, nearly 200,000 people have arrived in New York City since spring 2022, after crossing the southern border, taking advantage of the local rule that requires shelter to be provided to those in need.
Of that group, more than 50% have made their way to other cities, given the impossibility of making the jump from the shelter system to their own homes. Even more so when the City changed the rules of permanence to 30 days for single people and 60 for families with children.
“You come to this dazzling city with the idea that there are opportunities for everyone. And it’s not true. It’s a fantasy. After a few weeks you start to understand that in order to progress, you have to leave here. Unless you want to be a parasite of the government for life. For those who don’t speak English, don’t have papers and don’t have connections, it’s very, very hard, especially if you have children,” said 29-year-old Venezuelan Samira Pico.
Samira points out that for families who came here really looking for the American dream, of working and seeing their children grow up, New York is a starting point that lasts a few weeks, but within a few days it turns into a nightmare.
“The city treated us very well. I will always be very grateful. But there is no work for people of our profile. And what you earn is not enough to dream of a modest apartment. And you see it with other migrants who have been here for up to ten years. And you see that they are having a hard time, they are being evicted, what they work for is not enough for anything,” says the migrant who plans for her eight-year-old daughter to finish her school year and go to Ohio, where relatives found other opportunities.
The fact:
- Hispanic New Yorkers are 38% more likely to leave New York. This ethnic group has the highest moving rates. In the years following the pandemic, this likelihood of moving to other states has doubled.