Initial forecasts had predicted that La Niña would have already set in by now. However, a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that La Niña will still take a few more months to develop.
This climatic phenomenon, known for its global effects on the climate, has not yet shown definitive signs of its arrival.
One of the main indicators of the arrival of “La Niña” is the sea surface temperature (SST). So far, this has not dropped enough to confirm the imminent onset of the phenomenon. Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean remain within normal ranges and, in some areas, traces of the “El Niño” phenomenon are still observed, with values slightly above average.
According to Meteored, atmospheric behaviour, winds and convection have also been at normal levels in recent weeks. These factors contribute to the uncertainty about the arrival of “La Niña”, as they do not show the typical conditions of a significant cooling of the ocean.
NOAA forecasts and probabilities of the arrival of “La Niña”
NOAA, in its latest update, reports that there is a 70% chance that “La Niña” will develop between August and October of this year. This phenomenon is expected to persist through the southern summer of 2024 and early 2025, with a 79% chance of occurring between November and January.
The report also notes that “below-average subsurface ocean temperatures” and “a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July” should be observed in the near future. These indicators could mark the beginning of “La Niña,” although they have not yet manifested themselves conclusively.
Despite NOAA’s forecast, other climate models suggest it could arrive later in the year. Australia’s Meteorological Bureau estimates the phenomenon will set in between September and November. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ PAGASA agency predicts it will arrive between October and December.
These differences in forecasts underscore the complexity of predicting climate events like this, which depend on a multitude of interrelated variables. The diversity of estimates reflects the different methodologies and data used by climate agencies worldwide.
Importance of “La Niña” in the global climate
“La Niña” is a climatic phenomenon that has significant effects on the global climate. It is characterized by a cooling of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific, which can influence rainfall and temperature patterns in various regions of the world. In South America, for example, it is often associated with abundant rainfall in northeastern Brazil and droughts in the south of the continent.
In Asia, it can cause heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia and affect the monsoon season in India. In North America, La Niña can influence the intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and lead to drier conditions in the southwestern United States.
The world continues to closely monitor changes in sea surface temperatures and other climate indicators. Meanwhile, the arrival of “La Niña” continues to be delayed, with the expectation that it will manifest itself later in the year. The scientific community and international climate agencies will continue to update their forecasts and analyses to provide the most accurate information possible on this phenomenon and its possible global impacts.
Keep reading:
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