By The newspaper
25 Jul 2024, 22:40 PM EDT
A new poll conducted by the New York Times in collaboration with Siena College places Vice President Kamala Harris just one point behind Donald Trump, who is already the official Republican presidential candidate, while Harris would have to wait to be nominated by the Democrats.
Since Joe Biden’s announcement to step away from his re-election race and support Kamala Harris, 59, he has given Democrats a respite, which was reflected in the New York Times and Siena College poll conducted from July 22 to 24, which surveyed 1,142 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
And as a result, Donald Trump has 48% of the support, compared to 47% for Kamala Harris, practically tied, there is only one percentage point, especially when Trump’s advantage over Biden was six points in the Times poll in June.
Biden’s mistakes
The imbalance suffered by the Democrats was reflected after the first presidential debate in May, when Joe Biden had some stumbles that Donald Trump sometimes took advantage of.
The New York Times poll adds another piece of data: Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity and significant gains among several demographic groups. Trump has a combination of continued strength with his base and his highest favorable ratings of the election.
Between Biden’s June numbers and now, Harris has taken a 2 percentage point lead over Trump among independent voters, reversing the former president’s previous 10 percentage point advantage.
14 percentage points advantage among women
More specifically, Harris holds a 14 percentage point lead among women, a 21 percentage point lead among voters ages 18 to 29, a 24 percentage point lead among Hispanic voters and a 53 percentage point lead among Black voters — all double-digit increases over Biden’s numbers from last month.
Trump, meanwhile, is polling better among older, white male voters.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of Trump, up 9 percentage points since June and a record high in the New York Times/Siena College polls. Trump, meanwhile, escaped an assassination attempt and named Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.
Forty-five percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, up 6 percentage points from last month.
Vice President Harris has emerged as the Democratic Party’s expected nominee after Biden stepped aside from the race. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris.
According to statistics, nearly 9 in 10 likely voters approve of Biden’s withdrawal, and 81% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters think the party should nominate Kamala Harris as its candidate.
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