The presidential election taking place this Sunday, July 28 in Venezuela is unlike any other election held in any Latin American country in recent decades. And perhaps it is the first time in history that the political destiny of this country has some resonance in New York City, where until four years ago, no more than 16,000 Venezuelans were officially counted in the census.
This resonance has nothing to do with the mobilization of voters in New York, who are eligible to vote. In the United States, these citizens do not have access to participate in this process. It has to do with the fact that the streets of this city have been one of those that have most strongly “seen the face” of the terrible economic and political crisis of this oil-producing nation.
After 25 years of the authoritarian regime established by Hugo Chávez and continued by Nicolás Maduro, the expectation of the majority of Venezuelans, as established by all surveys, is to take a step towards restoring democracy, and to begin to put an end to a repressive model and sustained violation of Human Rights, as confirmed by several reports endorsed by the United States.
This authoritarian framework, on the South American map, has expelled more than 8 million people, of whom thousands began arriving since spring 2022, asking for a place in the municipal shelters of the Big Apple.
“If Maria Corina wins, I’ll be back”
Of the 206,000 migrants who have requested shelter in New York, 64% came from this Caribbean country in 2023. In 2024, the figure dropped by 23%. These numbers are derived from several official municipal estimates. One of them is Samuel Toledo, 48, who after a year “looking for a life” in the Big Apple, says that if “the dictatorship leaves” and changes are observed, he would not hesitate to return to his native Caracas.
“There is hardly any work for us here. I am very grateful to this city, because they have helped us a lot. But I did not come here to live off the government. And for us, integration is very hard here. Many criminals came and discredited us. That is why many do not want to hire Venezuelans, not even to clean toilets,” the migrant said.
A report by the organization Make The Road NY stated that as of last May, only 3% of migrants in the shelter system had found stable work in the Big Apple.
As an aggravating factor, Toledo believes that the version of the Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has stated that the Venezuelan regime has sent thousands of criminals and ex-convicts to the country, has fueled the fire of the negative stigmas that have crystallized against this community, particularly among other Hispanic groups.
“Most of us came here to do things right. There are many professionals, honest people. Because of these very serious crimes, they have closed the door to all of us. With delivery and one-day jobs, no one here gets ahead. If María Corina wins and there are changes, I will go back. I won’t even think about it,” said Samuel.
The migrant is referring to María Corina Machado, the opposition leader with the most popular support that the opposition has had in recent decades. This figure will not even be on the ballot this Sunday, because the Venezuelan regime prevented her from registering to run for president.
The opposition candidate who will actually be on the ballot is called Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat who managed to register at the last minute, through the coalition of parties that supports Machado.
Both politicians agreed that if the political model they are trying to defeat continues, the migration crisis will only get worse. Part of their campaign is to send a message to immigrants that they could return to rebuild that nation.
“Nothing happens overnight”
For others, like migrant Miguel Aveledo, 40, although there are changes, the devastation left by Chavismo is such that it will take years to achieve a certain stability.
“Getting PDVSA (state oil company) and the basic companies back on their feet will be very complicated. I came here with my family, two children, and in ten months I have only managed to find temporary jobs. They require work permits and English, even to wash dishes. We are clear that if Trump wins, everything will become more complicated for us. He will take away many benefits, such as TPS, with a stroke of a pen,” Miguel predicted.
The Aragua Train Factor
In this poorly integrated and dispersed microcosm of Venezuelan migration in New York, there is an increasingly clear dividing line. In one block are the most rooted communities, who settled there some time ago through family and professional ties. And in the other, there are those who did so recently, due to the “hole” in the local norm of the right to shelter, which encouraged thousands of Venezuelans to come to the Big Apple, after having crossed the southern border. This wave gave a lot of strength to the migration crisis, which began to take shape after the end of the pandemic emergency. However, the projection is that Maduro’s permanence in power would encourage more Venezuelans to cross the southern border with Mexico.
For example, Venezuelan teacher and businesswoman Carolina Espino, who has lived in New York for 20 years, believes that her country is living an illusion of trying to “dislodge a drug trafficking mafia” with votes. In her words, she foresees that Maduro “will retain power” because he does not represent a “political sector,” but rather a “criminal organization, with alliances with the worst in the world.”
“It is in the best interest of good Venezuelans living in New York that there be changes in Venezuela, as well as in border security in this country. And a shift in the relations between the two. Weaknesses in the immigration system have opened the doors to dangerous gangs like the Tren de Aragua, which are already operating freely here. And they will continue to arrive. This has destroyed our flag. It is no longer a matter of the simplistic statement that says: ‘they are not all of them’. There have been enough of them to destroy the image of Venezuelan migration as a whole,” he reasoned.
Carolina’s claims are not speculation. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) has confirmed the presence of this gang on the streets of New York, associated with young newcomers linked to robberies, drug trafficking and attacks on police officers.
Carolina defines that “whatever happens” this Sunday in her country, there will be no rapid structural or cultural changes, because there is an entire generation that only knew abuse, violence and cheating as a way of survival.
NY leaders join forces to complicate fraud
As some members of opposition political organizations residing in the Big Apple have pointed out, the event scheduled for this Sunday is preceded by blatant opportunism by the regime.
There also remains the great spectre that Nicolás Maduro, even without having the votes to win, could finally prevail, because he controls all the pieces of an electoral system that has been shown to be designed to screw Chavismo into power through tricks.
Even so, there are calculations that this totally disadvantageous scenario will not discourage the majority of Venezuelans registered to vote from attending en masse, with the idea of making it difficult for the regime to structure a fraud.
In fact, local representatives of Vente, the political party of opposition leader María Corina Machado, have organized the campaign ‘un tarp para Edmundo’ from New York, with the idea that thousands of Venezuelans in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, even if they cannot vote, learn about the process, so that they can guide and motivate their relatives from a distance to vote. But also to defend the vote.
In this regard, Osbel Paredes, coordinator of Vente Venezuela in New York, reports that from here, workshops have been held so that migrants can promote participation among family members and neighbors from a distance.
“We have held events in Elizabeth, New Jersey, in front of the Venezuelan consulate building in Manhattan, at the music festival in Astoria, so that people can learn how to vote and encourage participation. The key to this process, in which we have great faith, to recover democracy, is that mass participation is the key,” the activist stressed.
Without conditions, but with faith
Venezuelans living in New York cannot vote, among other reasons, because diplomatic relations with the United States have been broken.
In addition, the Venezuelan National Electoral Council, dominated by the regime, blocked the possibility of the vast diaspora participating en masse.
According to some projections, derived from parties opposed to the regime, between 3.5 and 5.5 million Venezuelans eligible to vote live outside the country, out of a total electorate of 21 million people.
Only 69,612 Venezuelans living abroad are registered to vote.
The last time Nicolás Maduro called for an election was in 2016. His re-election, according to international observations, was a rigged and uncompetitive process, which was rejected by 50 democracies around the world, including the United States.
Among the growing Venezuelan presence in New York, Leonel Flores of the ‘Community of Venezuelans in NY’, believes that “although there are no electoral conditions, because they are facing a terrible tyranny, what is observed is a resistance from the majority to continue forward. There are no institutions. It is a dictatorship, but even so we have a lot of faith that a transition can be achieved.”