New York – Voters in Puerto Rico are divided on whether to hold a local plebiscite as part of the island’s Nov. 5 general election, depending on the political party to which they belong.
The above was part of the results of the Gaither International survey, entitled “Puerto Rico Political Landscape,” which surveyed the feelings of potential Puerto Rican voters on that and other issues such as status formulas and preferred candidates for governor and resident commissioner in Washington DC.
The analysis of the survey conducted in July was released this month.
The research showed that the answers to the question about whether or not they support holding a local plebiscite on election day vary significantly depending on the political affiliation of the respondents.
Among supporters of the PNP (New Progressive Party), the group leading the efforts to hold the referendum, 30% said they were in complete agreement, while 36% agreed, with 66%. Supporters of the PIP (Puerto Rican Independence Party) showed the greatest opposition, with 50% in complete disagreement and 23% in disagreement, with 73%. Supporters of the PPD (Popular Democratic Party) also showed considerable opposition. 38% responded that they were in complete disagreement and 32% that they disagreed, with 70%.
“This indicates a strong partisan division with supporters of the PNP being more in favour of the plebiscite compared to those of the PIP and the PPD,” highlights part of the analysis of the survey.
If the age element is added to the question, the 18 to 24 age group shows the highest level of support for a consultation of this type on November 5, with 21% who are in complete agreement and 32% who agree, for a 53% share.
Regarding the reasons that led participants not to support a local plebiscite, the most pointed out was the high cost associated with holding it. This was selected by 16% of the participants in the sample, with higher percentages among PIP voters (21%) and non-affiliated voters (20%). 14% also stated that, if no action was taken with the results, credibility would be lost. This view is shared mainly by non-affiliated voters (17%) and MVC voters (17%). 14% consider the effort both a waste of time and that it will have no practical results.
When asked about the status option they would vote for in the plebiscite, 45% of respondents said statehood. The greatest support came from members of the PNP (83%) and Proyecto Dignidad (43%). As for independence, the general support was 11%, mostly from respondents who identified with the PIP (58%) and Movimiento Victoria Ciudadana (MVC) (36%). In the case of free association, 23% responded that they preferred that option, with particular support from participants of the PPD (48%) and MVC (31%). Finally, 15% said they would not vote, with higher percentages among the popular (25%) and the unaffiliated (23%).
When asked which option they would choose if only statehood and independence were available on the ballot, 95% of PNP respondents said statehood.
In the case of PPD supporters, the percentage was 61%, which suggests divisions on the issue of status within the community and the vision of the Free Associated State (ELA).
Among PIP supporters, support for statehood was 26%.
Among the PD members, the figure rose to 69%; while among the MVC members, it rose to 42%. Finally, among the non-affiliated, the figure reached 61%.
In early July, Governor Pedro Pierluisi called for a plebiscite consultation between non-territorial options for the same day as the elections under Law 165 of 2020 or “Law to Implement the Petition for Statehood of the 2020 Plebiscite.”
The PIP went to the Supreme Court on the island to challenge the electoral process, believing that the governor is assuming powers that correspond to the Legislative Branch.
The Popular Party, for its part, has called for people to leave the ballot blank as a form of protest, among other things because the consultation does not include the Free Associated State (ELA), the current system of government that the PPD supports as an institution.
When asked in general whether they had considered voting for statehood, 60% of respondents answered yes.
This inclination is greater among supporters of the PNP (92%) and Project Dignity (64%).
On the other hand, 39% have not considered statehood as an option. The greatest opposition comes from voters of the PPD (73%) and the PIP (74%).
In the case of independence, 31% of voters have considered voting for that alternative. The broadest support was from voters of the PIP (88%) and MVC (72%). On the other hand, 68% said they had not considered that status formula, mainly divided between the PNP (83%) and the PPD (78%).
Candidates for Governor and Resident Commissioner
Regarding the preference for candidates for governor, the still resident commissioner in Washington, Jennifer González (PNP), leads in favor of those surveyed with 44% of the total vote. González, who defeated Pierluisi in the June primaries, is followed by Juan Dalmau (PIP) with 21%. In third place was Jesús Manuel Ortiz (PPD) with 16% of the voting intention. Javier Jiménez (PD) and Javier Córdova (MVC) received 6% and 1%, respectively.
As for the candidacy for resident commissioner, William Villafañe, of the PNP, is in the lead with 35%. He is followed by Pablo José Hernández, of the PPD, with 22%; Ana Irma Rivera Lassen, of the MVC with 13%; and Viviana Ramírez, of the PD with 5%.
Participation in the general election
Regarding participation in the November 5 elections, 45% of the total sample said that it is extremely likely that they will go to vote.
Under extremely likely and very likely, the percentage reached 85%
“The MVC has the highest commitment with 96%, followed by the PIP with 90%. The PPD has a solid 87%, while the PNP and non-affiliated parties have 86% and 84%, respectively.
Under the extremely probable option, 67% corresponds to the PIP, followed by 60% of the MVC supporters; 51% of the PPD; 50% of Proyecto Dignidad; 45% of the non-affiliated, and 43% of the PNP.
When asked which candidate for governor they voted for in 2020, Pierluisi was among the most favored with 45% of the total votes, with support mainly from PNP voters (88%). Charlie Delgado followed with 20% of the total votes, predominantly from PPD supporters (73%). In third place was Juan Dalmau who secured 14% of the total with the greatest support from PIP voters (67%). Alexandra Lúgaro received 14% of the total, mainly from MVC voters (75%). Finally, César Vázquez and Eliezer Molina received 4% and 3%, respectively, with minimal support among all affiliations.
The study also showed that 53% of participants have voted for different parties in different elections, with a higher tendency among non-affiliated parties (76%) and members of the Dignity Project (78%).
Survey methodology and participants
The study began on July 12 and was completed on August 1.
The sample consisted of 1,138 interviews in the eight senatorial districts of the island.
Telephone interviews were computer-assisted. 47% of the interviews were conducted with men and 53% with women.
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