By EFE
Aug 31, 2024, 07:34 AM EDT
Washington – Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has used the momentum of last week’s Democratic National Convention to erase the advantages her Republican rival held in almost all of the key states in the election, including some she had gained ground in, such as Georgia.
In the US electoral college system, the November 5 election will be decided in the seven states still considered undecided, where Harris has eliminated almost all of Trump’s advantages until now, especially before President Joe Biden resigned from re-election five weeks ago.
Harris, who became the Democratic candidate at the beginning of the month and was crowned last week at the Chicago convention, has hit Trump’s lead hard in Nevada, where the Democrat has improved by almost 4 points, and in Arizona, a state where the vice president has advanced three points in a single month.
However, these improvements are not enough to clearly overtake Trump, who remains within the statistical margin of error in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Harris’s strongest advantages for the moment are in the states of Wisconsin and Michigan.
According to a Fox News poll released Wednesday that was criticized by the Trump campaign, Harris has eliminated the Republican’s entire lead in Arizona, where the Democrat has a one-point lead; and in Georgia and Nevada, where the margin is two points. Trump remains ahead by just one point in North Carolina.
This is in stark contrast to the previous poll in February, in which Biden was the Democratic nominee and was five to six points behind Trump.
The tie in Pennsylvania, which provides 19 electoral votes, is the main obstacle to a possible Harris victory, while Trump’s strong decline in Georgia also complicates the Republican’s chances.
Political and sports analyst Nate Silver, who has created a model to predict the winner of the November election based on the quality of polls and other factors, sees Trump as the favorite at 53.1 percent, compared with Harris’ 46.6 percent chance.
Silver said Thursday that his model considers the polls immediately following the Democratic and Republican conventions to be inflated and their weighting should be adjusted.
However, this week a Suffolk University poll showed how the change in leadership in the Democratic Party has mobilized young people, low-income households, and Hispanics and African-Americans towards the vice-presidential candidacy, with double-digit advantages in voting intention over Trump.
David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University in Boston, noted in a statement that “young people, people of color and low-income households have shifted sharply toward the vice president.”
A Wall Street Journal poll released Friday shows that 48% of voters have a mostly positive opinion of the Democratic candidate, compared to 47% of the former Republican president, a very narrow difference within the margin of error.
The FiveThirtyEight national polling average gives Harris a 3.4-point lead, with 47.2% of voting intentions, while the RealClearPolitics average puts the margin in her favor at 1.8 points, to 48%.
By Jairo Mejia
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