Tensions between Iran and Israel came to a head with Tehran launching dozens of missiles on Israeli cities, raising fears of a major escalation in the Middle East.
For years, both countries have been indirectly confronted, through the so-called “axis of resistance”, made up of Iran’s allies in the Middle East: the government of Syria, the Palestinian group Hamas, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen. , as well as Shiite armed groups in Iraq.
Several of these actors have been harassing Israel since Hamas launched a surprise and bloody attack on Israel on October 7 that began the current war in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people have died.
Beyond the war against Hamas in Gaza, Israel launched a strong offensive against Hezbollah in recent weeks that has caused the death of its top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as several of its commanders.
Last April, an attack attributed to Israel against the Iranian consulate building in Damascus caused the death of one of the highest-ranking commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and generated in response what is considered the first direct attack by Tehran against Israeli territory.
Some 300 missiles and drones were launched, causing no significant damage but demonstrating Iran’s ability to strike from a distance.
In response, Israel launched a limited attack on Iran that, according to authorities in Tehran, “had no consequences as it was a “failed and humiliating attempt.”
And at the end of July, Hamas’s top leader, Ismail Haniya, was killed in an attack while visiting Tehran.
Following Israel’s recent operation against Hezbollah, Iran had promised a “crushing response” of which Tuesday’s attacks apparently form part.
But, if this leads to an escalation, how do the military capabilities of both rivals compare?
Which side has the advantage?
The BBC has analyzed this issue using the sources listed below, although each country may have significant capability that is kept secret.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) compares the firepower of both countries’ militaries using a variety of official and open source methods to produce the best possible estimates.
Other organizations, such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, also make assessments, but accuracy can vary in countries that often do not provide figures.
However, Nicholas Marsh of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) says the IISS is considered a benchmark for assessing the military strength of countries around the world.
IISS says Israel spends more on its defense budget than Iran, giving it significant leverage in any potential conflict.
IISS says Iran’s defense budget was around US$7.4 billion in 2022 and 2023, while Israel’s was more than double that, around US$19 billion.
Israel’s defense spending compared to its Gross Domestic Product (a measure of its economic output) is also twice that of Iran.
Technological advantage
IISS figures show that Israel has 340 combat-ready military aircraft, giving it an advantage in precision airstrikes.
The aircraft include F-15 long-range strike aircraft, F-35s (high-tech “stealth” aircraft that can evade radar), and fast attack helicopters.
IISS estimates that Iran has around 320 combat-capable aircraft. The planes date back to the 1960s and include the F-4, F-5, and F-14 (the latter being the plane made famous in the 1986 film Top Gun).
But PRIO’s Nicholas Marsh says it’s unclear how many of these old planes can actually fly, because getting spare parts is extremely difficult.
Iron Dome and Arrow
The backbone of Israel’s defense is its Iron Dome and Arrow systems.
Missile engineer Uzi Rubin is the founder of the Israel Missile Defense Organization in the country’s Defense Ministry.
Rubin, who now works as a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told the BBC last April that he felt very safe when he saw Iron Dome and its international allies destroy almost all the missiles and drones that Iran He then fired at Israel.
“I felt very satisfied and very happy… He is very specialized against his objectives. It is a short-range missile defense. There is nothing like it anywhere else [sistema]”.
How far is Iran from Israel?
Israel is more than 2,100 kilometers from Iran.
Their missiles are the main method of attack, Defense Eye editor Tim Ripley tells the BBC.
Iran’s missile program is considered the largest and most diverse in the Middle East.
In 2022, General Kenneth McKenzie of the US Central Command said that Iran had “more than 3,000” ballistic missiles.
According to the CSIS Missile Defense Project, Israel also exports missiles to several countries.
Iran’s missiles and drones
Iran has carried out extensive work on its missile and drone systems since its war with neighboring Iraq (1980-1988).
It has developed short- and long-range missiles and drones, many of which were fired in April at Israel.
Analysts studying the missiles that have been aimed at Saudi Arabia by the Houthi rebels have concluded that they were manufactured in Iran.
“Punish” with long-range attacks
Defense Eye’s Tim Ripley says Israel is highly unlikely to venture into a ground war with Iran: “Israel’s big advantage is its air power and guided weapons. Therefore, it has the potential to launch airstrikes against key targets in Iran.”
Ripley says the most likely scenario in the event of an armed conflict would be for Israel to kill officials and destroy oil facilities from the air.
“’Punish’ is at the heart of this…Israeli military and political leaders use that word all the time. It is part of their philosophy, that they have to inflict pain to make their opponents think twice before confronting Israel. “
In the past, high-profile Iranian military and civilian figures have been killed in airstrikes. That includes the April attack on an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for that attack or for several attacks against prominent Iranian officials. But he has not denied his responsibility either.
Naval forces
Iran’s aging navy has about 220 ships, while Israel’s has about 60, according to IISS reports.
Cyberattacks
Israel has more to lose than Iran in a cyber attack.
Iran’s defense system is less technologically advanced than Israel’s, so an electronic attack against the Israeli military could achieve much more.
Last April, the Israeli government’s National Cyber Directorate said that “the intensity of cyber attacks is greater than ever, at least three times greater, and with attacks in all Israeli sectors. Cooperation between Iran and Hezbollah (the Lebanese political and militant organization) increased during the war.”
It reported that between the Hamas attacks from October 7 and the end of 2023 there were 3,380 cyberattacks.
The head of Iran’s Civil Defense Organization, Brigadier General Gholamreza Jalali, said Iran thwarted nearly 200 cyberattacks in February, the month before parliamentary elections there.
In December, Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji said a cyberattack caused problems at gas stations across the country.
nuclear threat
Israel supposedly has its own nuclear weapons, but maintains an official policy of deliberate ambiguity.
Iran is not believed to yet have nuclear weapons and, despite accusations to the contrary, denies that it is attempting to use its civilian nuclear program to become a nuclear weapons state.
Many international experts have expressed concern about the increase in Iranian production of enriched uranium, as it increasingly approaches the levels required for use for war purposes.
Geography and demographics
Iran is a much larger country than Israel and its population (about 89 million) is almost ten times that of Israel (almost 10 million).
It also has about six times as many soldiers in service as Israel. There are 600,000 active troops in Iran, while Israel has 170,000, IISS says.
How could Israel retaliate?
Last week, in his speech to the UN General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned Tehran that if it attacks Israeli territory, its government would attack back.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the missiles launched Tuesday were only the “first wave” and that if Israel counterattacks, the response will be “crushing and ruinous.”
It remains to be seen how Israel will react.
*This note was originally published in April 2024 and was updated due to the attack launched by Iran against Israel this October 1. Prepared with information from Arif Shamim (BBC News Urdu) and contributions from Ahmen Khawaja, Carla Rosch and Reza Sabeti and Chris Partridge.
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