By now, many of us will be familiar with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid. This variant of concern has changed the course of the pandemic, leading to a dramatic increase in cases worldwide.
We are also hearing more and more about new omicron sub-variants with names like BA.2, BA.4 and now BA.5. The concern is that these subvariants may cause people to become infected again, leading to another increase in cases.
Why are we seeing more of these new subvariants? Is the virus mutating faster? And what are the implications for the future of Covid?
Why are there so many types of omicron?
All viruses, including SARS -CoV-2, constantly mutate. The vast majority of mutations have little or no effect on the ability of the virus to spread from person to person or cause severe disease.
When a virus accumulates a substantial number of mutations, it is considered a different lineage (sort of like a different branch on a family tree). But a viral lineage is not labeled as a variant until it has accumulated several unique mutations known to enhance the ability of the virus to transmit and/or cause more severe disease.
This was the case for the BA lineage (sometimes known as B.1.1.529) that the World Health Organization (WHO) called Ómicron. Omicron has spread rapidly, accounting for almost all current cases with sequenced genomes worldwide.
Dado While Omicron has expanded and had many opportunities to mutate, he has also acquired specific mutations of his own. These have given rise to several sublineages or subvariants.
The first two were labeled BA.1 and BA.2. The current list now also includes BA.1.1, BA.3, BA.4 and BA.5.
We have already seen sub-variants of previous versions of the virus, such as delta. However, Omicron has surpassed them, possibly due to its greater transmissibility. Therefore, subvariants of the above viral variants are much less common today and there is less emphasis on tracking them.
Why are subvariants so important?
There is evidence that these Omicron subvariants, specifically BA.4 and BA.5, are particularly effective at reinfecting people with previous infections with BA.1 or other lineages. There is also concern that these sub-variants could infect people who have been vaccinated.
Therefore, we expect to see a rapid increase in Covid cases in the coming weeks and months due to the reinfections, which we are already seeing in South Africa.
However, recent research suggests that a third dose of the Covid vaccine is the most effective way to stop the spread of Omicron (including subvariants) and prevent hospital admissions associated with the disease.
Recently, the BA.2.19.1 has also drawn attention because it has been spreading rapidly in the United States. United States and was detected in wastewater in Australia.
Alarmingly, even if someone has been infected with the BA.1 subvariant of omicron, reinfection with the BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages is still possible, due to their ability to evade immune responses.
Is the virus mutating faster?
One would think that SARS- CoV-2 is a super fast runner when it comes to mutations. But the virus actually mutates relatively slowly. Influenza viruses, for example, mutate at least four times faster.
However, SARS-CoV-2 does “mutational sprints” for short periods of time, as shown by our research. During one of these sprints, the virus can mutate four times faster than normal for a few weeks.
After those sprints, the lineage has more mutations, some of which can provide an advantage over other bloodlines. Examples include mutations that may help the virus become more transmissible, cause more severe disease, or evade our immune response, and thus new variants emerge.
It is not clear why the virus undergoes these mutational races that lead to the appearance of variants. But there are two main theories about Omicron’s origins and how he accumulated so many mutations.
First, the virus could have evolved into chronic (prolonged) infections in immunosuppressed people (who have a weakened immune system).
Secondly, the virus could have “jumped” to another species, before re-infecting to humans.
What other tricks does the virus have?
Mutation is not the only how variants can arise. The Ómicron XE variant appears to have resulted from a recombination event. This is where a single patient was infected with BA.1 and BA.2 at the same time. This co-infection led to a “genome swap” and a hybrid variant.
Other cases of SARS-CoV-2 recombination between Delta and Omicron were reported, resulting in the which was called deltacron.
So far, recombinants do not seem to have greater transmissibility or cause more serious effects. But this could change rapidly with new recombinants. So scientists are monitoring them closely.
What might we see in the future?
As long as the virus is circulating, we will continue to see new lineages and variants of the virus. As Omicron is the most common variant currently, it is likely that we will see more sub-variants of Omicron and potentially even recombinant lineages.
Scientists will continue to track new mutations and recombination events (particularly with subvariants). They will also use genomic technologies to predict how they might occur and any effect they might have on the behavior of the virus.
This knowledge will help us limit the spread and impact of variants and sub-variants. It will also guide the development of effective vaccines against multiple or specific variants.
*Sebastian Duchene
, and Ash Porter is a researcher at the Institute of Infectionon and Immunity Peter Doherty, Australia.
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